The Sconi

Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin Mandela Barnes has a different view from many when it comes to the country’s sputtering economy.

“We have seen unprecedented growth for a long time now,” Mandela recently told WKOW TV when asked if the country has reached the point of being in a recession. Mandela is holding firm to his opinion despite recent core inflation numbers being at a 40-year high and a growing number of economist now predicting a recession is imminent.

In addition, Grabien.com reports the national economy recently shrank for the second consecutive quarter, as rising grocery prices and high inflation continue their upward trajectory.

More recently, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) summary for the country on October 13, with researchers concluding the rate of inflation over the last 12 months stands at 8.2% after rising 0.4% in September. Over the last year, food costs have risen by 11.2%, energy costs have skyrocketed by 19.8%, gas prices have increased by 18.2% and the cost to purchase a new vehicle has jumped by 9.4%.

According to Trading Economics, the annual core inflation rate, which tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods, including food and fuel costs, was 6.6% in September, the highest in four decades.

Trading Economics adds shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations and education were among the indexes that saw a price increase, while used cars and trucks, apparel and communication dipped over the same time.

The “all items less food and energy” data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the same as the core inflation indicator from Trading Economics.

CNBC reports among those warning that all signs point to a recession over the next nine months is Jaime Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in the country. Dimon points to such contributing factors as record inflation, continuous increases in interest rates and the still unsettling effects of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war.

“But you can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future — and this is serious stuff,” he added.

With the Federal Reserve taking to raising interest rates as a step-in combating inflation, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans has expressed concern the government may be doing more harm than good in raising rates too quickly.

Federal government officials recently confirmed they plan to continue raising rates to 3.25%, prompting Dimon to further warn that the recession could be hard hitting.

A recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) survey of 66 economists also concluded that a recession is likely to hit over the next year, with WSJ placing the probability at 63%, up some 14% over the last three months. In 2023, gross domestic product is expected to have negative growth in the first two quarters, with economist predicting GDP will contract 0.2% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second.

With economists also predicting job cuts and payroll declines, WSJ adds 58.9% of them now believe that the Fed is raising interest rates too fast, predicting interest rates will climb to 4.551% in June of 2023.

“‘Soft landing’ will likely remain a mythical outcome that never actually comes to pass,” said Daniil Manaenkov, an economist at the University of Michigan. The WSJ explains a ‘soft landing’ would be when the Fed raises interest rates enough to curb inflation without tipping into recession.

WSJ economists also expect unemployment to rise and home prices to decline by 2.2%, the greatest decline in more than a decade.