The Sconi

With inflation running wild, wages falling and mortgage rates soaring, most Americans believe the country is now in a recession and indicate they are already feeling the pain of deteriorating economic conditions.

With Americans also staring down the barrel of two straight quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, a Senate Opportunity Fund survey found most voters are clear about whom they blame for the downturn. In fact, 58% of Americans indicate they agree with the statement, “Democrats’ runaway spending, punishing regulations and attack on American energy is hurting the economy and forcing the country into a recession.”

Focusing on 1,600 general election voters across the country from Sept. 12-15, the poll also found the numbers represented the views of 52% of moderate voters.  

Overall, 64% of voters say the U.S. is in a recession, a Scott Rasmussen national survey said, with another 19% indicating they remain unsure.

Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day poll also determined that nearly three out of every four Americans, or 73%, say that over the past year their income has been falling behind inflation. Conducted from Sept. 15-17, that survey had a sample size of 1,200 registered voters and was conducted online with the margin of error for the full sample being 2.8 percentage points.

Around the same time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the 12 months ending August 2022, with figures showing an 8.3% all items annual increase, which represents a 0.1% rise from the month prior, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

According to BLS officials, over a yearlong period ending in August 2022, real average hourly earnings for all employees declined 2.8%, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6% in the average workweek resulted in a 3.4% decrease in real average weekly earnings in the last year.

After declining at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022, the gross domestic product (GDP) dropped another 0.6% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) third estimate for quarter two, released September 29.

It all adds up to mean the nation's economy is shrinking, with Business Insider reporting the back-to-back quarters of decline send the message, "The U.S. is already in a technical recession, and supply bottlenecks from the pandemic are lingering in key markets."

All the market volatility leads mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac to conclude the mortgage rates are now suffering as a result, so much so that over the last several weeks rates have climbed and by the end of September the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.7%, or 3.69% higher than the rate at this time last year.

In Wisconsin, Bankrate.com reports that as of September 29, the going rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.79%.

According to Ballotpedia.org, when Americans were asked the same question, “Is the United States currently in a recession?” a month ago as part of a Rasmussen survey 57% of voters responded, "Yes".