The Sconi

The ongoing debate on eliminating fossil fuel use by 2050, especially in Wisconsin, is met with resistance due to the significant costs involved. Advocates of this transition often overlook the numerous expenses tied to phasing out gas or diesel-powered engines and the subsequent price increases for goods manufactured in factories using fossil fuels or transported via oil or diesel-burning vehicles.

The American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life (SCAL) conducted a survey of over 6,000 Americans in spring 2023. The participants were asked whether they would support a proposal to add a monthly fee to their electricity bill to combat climate change. If passed, this would cost households $10 every month. Only 26% of respondents voted in favor. When the proposed fee was increased to $40 and $75 per month, the percentage of supporters dropped to 15% and 9%, respectively.

According to economists who built a model for the Badger Institute, it would cost an average additional $172 per month for Wisconsin residents to use a heat pump instead of a natural gas furnace in a new house. This figure varies depending on location; for instance, Superior residents would pay an extra $251 per month, while those in Milwaukee would pay an additional $113.

These calculations are based on heating a 2,500-square-foot home to only 65 degrees. Factors such as running time of furnaces and heat pumps, cost comparison between electricity and natural gas, and "shell efficiency" of homes are considered.

Heat pumps are less expensive to install and are popular in warmer climates. However, the total additional cost over 15 years of mandatory heat pump usage — including initial cost, maintenance, and operation — is estimated at $19,976 on average in Wisconsin. In Superior, this figure could rise up to an estimated $29,837.

Ruy Teixeira, a nonresident senior fellow at AEI, noted that independent voters are opposed to a $20 monthly levy to combat climate change by 50 points. "Even voters who currently support Biden against Trump and those who voted for Biden in 2020 move into opposition at this point," he wrote.

The debate continues, but the high costs associated with transitioning away from natural gas furnaces to heat pumps may deter many Americans from supporting such measures. As the discussion unfolds, it remains essential to ask: If you're not willing to pay, who do you think should?

Mike Nichols is the President of the Badger Institute. Permission to reprint is granted as long as the author and Badger Institute are properly cited.