The Sconi

U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) has released a report analyzing the federal budget outlook for fiscal year 2025 and beyond. The report, titled "FY 2025 Budget Reconciliation: Facts, Figures, and Analysis," highlights concerns about continued high levels of federal spending and rising deficits.

According to Sen. Johnson, there is not enough recognition in Congress, the Administration, or among the public regarding the seriousness of the nation's fiscal situation. “The first step in solving any problem is admitting you have one. The second step is defining it clearly,” said Sen. Johnson.

Johnson's analysis points out that before the COVID-19 pandemic, federal deficits averaged $660 billion per year over seven years. In fiscal year 2020, government spending rose by $2.1 trillion due to pandemic-related measures, resulting in a single-year deficit exceeding $3.1 trillion. Despite economic recovery and lower unemployment rates after the pandemic peak, Johnson argues that spending did not return to previous levels under President Biden and congressional Democrats. He says this led to average annual deficits of $1.9 trillion over four years and contributed to inflation not seen in forty years.

Projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in January 2025 estimate a cumulative ten-year deficit of $21.1 trillion between FY2025 and FY2034—an average annual deficit of $2.1 trillion. The CBO's assessment of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) projects an even higher ten-year deficit of $24.1 trillion ($2.4 trillion per year). A White House memo from June 7, 2025 offers a scenario with a ten-year deficit of $18.6 trillion ($1.86 trillion annually), which assumes increased tariff revenue and reductions in discretionary spending.

Senator Johnson’s report examines various growth rates and spending scenarios but concludes that achieving a balanced budget will require returning to much lower pre-pandemic spending levels.

As stated by Republican leaders: “We don't have a revenue problem; we have a spending problem.”

“Republicans must ask themselves whether they're willing to address this spending problem. I hope the answer is yes — and I will continue doing everything I can to ensure it is,” said Sen. Johnson.

Ron Johnson has held his Senate seat since defeating Russ Feingold in both 2010 (51.9% vs 47%) and 2016 (50.2% vs 46.8%), as well as winning reelection against Mandela Barnes in 2022 with 50.4% of the vote compared to Barnes’ 49.4%.

The full text of Senator Johnson’s report is available online.