The Sconi

A new Trafalgar Group survey finds that a majority of voters stand in support of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s new bill that would effectively ban abortions beyond the 15-week period of pregnancy, excluding cases of rape, incest or threatening the life of the mother.

Conducted from Sept. 16-17, the Federal Abortion Law Nationwide Survey of 1,077 respondents who are “likely general election voters” asked participants to choose between two bills: The first would prevent abortions after 15 weeks (similar to Graham’s bill) except in cases of rape, incest and the mother’s health and the second would give women the right to abortion at any point during pregnancy.

In the end, 59.1% of respondents selected option 1, compared to the 40.9 that settled on option 2, with the margin of error being just 2.9%.  

Indeed, Graham argues in a press release that his bill would “bring U.S. abortion policy in line with other nations,” as 47 out of 50 European nations limit elective abortion prior to 15 weeks gestation.

“We will introduce legislation, along with a lot of my colleagues, to basically get America in a position at the federal level, I think that is fairly consistent with the rest of the world…that would say after 15 weeks, no abortion on demand except in cases of rape, incest, to save the life of the mother and that should be where America’s at,” Graham said in a video posted to YouTube.

While Trafalgar’s polling methodology includes a mix of live callers, integrated voice response, text messages, emails and two other proprietary digital methods, a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll and a Harris poll, conducted by Harvard’s Center for Political Studies (CAPS), found similar results.

In the WSJ survey of 1,500 voters, 48% came down in favor of the 15-week ban, except in cases of the mother’s health, against 43% that stand in opposition to it. And while the polling was completed before Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court, state legislators in Arizona and Florida were already pushing for a 15-week ban within their state.

WSJ also highlights that a Center for Disease Control (CDC) poll recently found that 95% of abortions in 2019 took place during or up to 15 weeks.

“There has to be a valid reason (for an abortion)” after 15 weeks, Pennsylvania resident Joann Belmares told the Journal. “Has to be more than ‘I just changed my mind.’”

Still others have voiced support for a ban of six weeks, similar to laws already on the books in Texas and Idaho.

Democrat Molly Murphy, who helped work on the WSJ poll, reasoned the differing opinions “speaks to the conflict in people’s minds on this issue. Most people want abortion to be legal, but where you draw the line varies.”

In the Harris poll, 1,308 voters shared their thoughts on abortion from June 28-29, or shortly after the Supreme Court’s Roe vs. Wade ruling, with a majority of voters agreeing they expect to see a “rollback of abortion rights at the state level" at some point and time.

On the question of “Do you think your state should allow abortion?” 10% said yes to up to nine months, 18% said yes to up to 23 weeks, 23% said yes to up to 15 weeks, 12% said yes to up to six weeks and 37% said yes, but only in cases of rape and incest.

Researchers also found 60% of Democratic voters would support a 15-week ban, while 40% would support abortion at 23 weeks and longer. On the Republican side, 84% of GOP voters support a 15-week ban and among female participants, 75% would support a 15-week ban, while 25% would oppose.

Through all the debate, Urban Milwaukee reports Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Mandela Barnes remains in lockstep with his party, recently opining, “It has never been more clear why we need to abolish the filibuster and take immediate action to protect every person’s right to make decisions about their own bodies. Republicans have proven they will stop at nothing to strip every individual of their right to an abortion. We must act now.”