The Sconi

In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove claims the GOP is likely to win many races because of inflation, the economy, crime, the border and President Joe Biden’s approval rating. A recent Trafalgar poll from Monday shows a majority likely to vote in the midterm elections strongly disapprove of the job Biden has done since taking office. The top issues for voters are inflation and the economy, abortion, crime and immigration, according to Gallup. The latest report shows core inflation is at the highest in 40 years, the murder rate has increased and fentanyl seizures and overdose deaths have significantly risen.

In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece, Rove said, “This midterm’s gravitational forces—inflation, the economy, crime, border security, Mr. Biden’s approval rating, voters’ feelings about the direction the country is headed—all work to the GOP’s advantage.”

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the numbers on inflation for the Midwest Region, which includes Wisconsin, on Oct. 13. The data shows inflation at 8.1%, meaning the consumer price index has increased 8.1% in September of this year compared to 2021. Prices increased by 0.2% in September compared to August in the Midwest Region. Food prices also increased by 12.7% and energy prices rose 20.7% since last year.

According to a recent Trafalgar poll, 55% of voters marked they "strongly disapprove" of the job Biden has done in the last two years. The poll asked 1,089 "likely general election voters" and was conducted Oct. 27-30 with a 2.9% margin of error. Approximately 4.3% of respondents "disapproved" of Biden’s handling, 23.1% "approved" and 16.3% "strongly approved." The poll concluded 59.3% disapproved while 39.4% approved. The poll respondents were 39.3% Democrats, 35.6% Republicans and 25.1% nonpartisan or other.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its latest CPI summary for the nation on Oct. 13, which found that the rate of inflation over the last 12 months stands at 8.2%. It rose 0.4% in September. In the last year, food costs have risen by 11.2%, energy costs have increased by 19.8%, gas prices have risen by 18.2% and the cost to purchase a new vehicle has increased by 9.4%. According to Trading Economics, the annual core inflation rate, which “tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes volatile food and fuel costs,” was 6.6% in September, higher than what was expected and the highest in 40 years. Trading Economics reports shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations and education were among the indexes that saw a price increase. Used cars and trucks, apparel and communication declined in September. The “all items less food and energy” data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the same as the core inflation indicator from Trading Economics.

Only 10% of Americans under the age of 40 strongly approve of Biden, according to CNBC. Twenty-five percent of participants in the CNBC poll strongly disapproved. 

“The Biden approval numbers are low but higher than Democratic or Republican Party favorability. We’re seeing low support across the board,” said Kumar Ramanathan, a Gen Forward research fellow. 

Inflation is the top concern for voters under 40, the only issue to receive double digit support, CNBC reported. Other top issues include abortion access, income inequality and education. 

“More young adults say inflation makes them more likely to support Republicans than Democrats, but the plurality, about a third, say it won’t impact their vote,” Ramanathan told CNBC. Ninety percent responded saying inflation has impacted their families.

According to Pew Research Center, violent crime is a top issue for voters in the election next week. Sixty-one percent say violent crime is important, but it still ranks below the economy for most, while 81% of black voters say violent crime is very important for them this election. Pew Research says although the U.S. violent crime rate has not risen significantly in 2021, the murder rate has increased. Pew Research also said in an article last year, the FBI in 2020 reported its highest single-year increase in homicides—a 30% jump from the previous year. Murder rates in rural and suburban counties both rose by 20% in 2020.

An August press release from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) states that 4.9 million migrants have crossed the border illegally since Biden took office. Approximately 3.4 million have come from the Southern border alone. In July, border patrol agents saw 199,976 illegal migrants cross, a 325% increase than under former President Donald Trump.

The top issues for voters are the economy, abortion, crime, gun policy, immigration, relations with Russia and climate change, according to Gallup. Almost 50% say the economy is "extremely important" as of Oct. 20. Gallup reports high inflation is likely the main funnel behind voters’ concern with the economy. Abortion is also "extremely important" to voters with 42% support after the recent overturn of Roe v. Wade. Forty percent are concerned with crime, 38% with gun policy and 37% with immigration. The poll surveyed registered voters for response.