The Sconi

The American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Survey found that the cost of an average Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people costs 30% more this year, on average, than the same meal cost in 2020. Additionally, it found that the "expanded" meal, which includes ham and additional sides, will cost just over 40% more than that same meal pre-Biden. A recent poll of Battleground state voters, which included Wisconsin, showed that rising food prices was the top inflationary concern for respondents.

The rise in the cost of traditional Thanksgiving meals is well illustrated by recent data. The American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Survey found that the average cost of a "classic" Thanksgiving dinner for ten in 2020 was about $46.90, while that same meal will cost $61.17 on average this year. This represents a price increase of just over 30%. Similarly, the AFB found that the "expanded" Thanksgiving dinner for 10, which includes ham and additional sides, cost $60.11 in 2020 and will cost $84.75 this year—an increase of almost 41%.

Even compared to last year, consumers can expect to pay higher prices for certain Thanksgiving items. As the Louisville Courier Journal reported, Indiana University Southeast Sanders Chair in Business Uric Dufrene said that consumer spending on Thanksgiving should be higher this year than last year due to inflation, which, while having a lower growth rate than last year, has still increased.

According to the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute's annual Thanksgiving food report, as of November 6, while the retail price of turkeys is down 16 percent from last October, prices of other Thanksgiving staples are up over last year. Since last year, retail ham prices are up 5.2 percent, canned cranberries are up nearly 60 percent, sweet potatoes are up 4 percent, russet potatoes are up 14 percent, canned green beans are up nearly 9 percent, and canned pumpkin is up by 30 percent. Wine is up 1.2 percent, and beer is up by 5.3 percent.

The inflationary trend has not just been a general concern; it has hit home for many Americans, particularly concerning food costs. A recent poll for the League of American Workers asked voters in four battleground states, including Wisconsin, about the issues that matter most to them. The poll found that, by a wide margin, food costs were respondents' top inflation-related concern. When asked to name their top two most significant impacts from inflation, 60 percent of poll respondents cited food prices.

Food banks are also feeling the inflationary squeeze entering into the holiday season. As Fox 6 Milwaukee reported, Feeding America Eastern Wisconsin's Scott Marshall says that the demand for food has gone up by 25 percent while supply has decreased. According to Marshall increase in demand is largely due to two factors: pandemic-era benefits expiring and higher grocery costs. Marshall explains that with grocery stores ordering less food they have less to donate to food banks than in years prior.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics further highlights the trend in rising food prices. Per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest report on the Consumer Price Index, from October 2022 to October 2023, overall food prices rose by 3.3 percent.

Looking forward, forecasts from the USDA's Economic Research Service suggest that these inflationary pressures are likely to persist into next year. In their most recent Food Price Outlook summarizing the October 2023 forecasts, the USDA's Economic Research Service predicted that all food prices will increase by 5.8 percent but up to 6.1 percent, in 2023. The USDA further predicted that in 2024 all food prices will increase by 2.1 percent, but with an upper range limit of 6.7 percent. Prices of food at home are predicted to increase by 1.0 percent, but with an upper range limit of 7.8 percent.